Methodology and data sources

Aviation Fuel Monitor is an independent research project tracing global jet fuel supply chains — from crude oil extraction, through refinery, to end consumption — and the trade flows that connect them. The maps published alongside this note cover jet fuel (a balance map and a trade-flow map) and crude oil (a balance map and a trade-flow map). They are built from publicly available trade and energy statistics, harmonised into a single consistent dataset across countries, years, and units.

This note summarises the data sources, the confidence indicators used in the maps, and the main assumptions and limitations a reader should keep in mind when interpreting the figures. The underlying data pipeline and processing methodology are proprietary and not published in detail.

Data sources

The figures on the maps are based on official statistics published by international organisations and national agencies. They have been selected, converted to common units and combined by Aviation Fuel Monitor and, in some cases, derived or estimated, so they may differ from the figures published by the original sources. Where more than one source covers the same country and period, the more authoritative and granular source is used; this is why some countries show data quality flags, rather than a uniform standard.

International sources

• UN Comtrade (United Nations Statistics Division)
  Source: UN Comtrade.
• JODI (Joint Organisations Data Initiative)
• Eurostat
• OPEC (Annual Statistical Bulletin)

National agencies

• Australia: Australian Petroleum Statistics
• Azerbaijan: State Statistical Committee
• Brazil: Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services (Comex Stat)
• Canada: Statistics Canada; Canada Energy Regulator
  Adapted from Statistics Canada, Table 25-10-0081-01, 2019 to June 2026. This does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada of this product.
• China: General Administration of Customs
• Colombia: DANE
• Ghana: Ghana Statistical Service
• Hong Kong: Census and Statistics Department
• Iceland: Statistics Iceland
• India: Ministry of Commerce and Industry
• Indonesia: Statistics Indonesia (BPS)
• Japan: Ministry of Finance, via the Portal Site of Official Statistics of Japan (e-Stat)
  Source: Portal Site of Official Statistics of Japan (https://www.e-stat.go.jp/). Created by Aviation Fuel Monitor based on Ministry of Finance trade statistics.
• Kazakhstan: national statistics and company reports
• New Zealand: Statistics New Zealand
• Norway: Statistics Norway (SSB), CC BY 4.0
• Philippines: Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA), CC BY
• Singapore: Singapore Department of Statistics (SingStat); Energy Market Authority
  Contains information from SingStat and EMA, made available under the terms of the Singapore Open Data Licence version 1.0 (licence).
• South Africa: South African Revenue Service
• South Korea: Korea Customs Service
• Sri Lanka: Central Bank
• Switzerland: Federal Office for Customs and Border Security (BAZG)
• Taiwan: Customs Administration, Ministry of Finance (Open Government Data License v1.0)
• Thailand: Customs Department
• United Kingdom: HM Revenue and Customs
  Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
• United States: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Data from all sources has been modified by Aviation Fuel Monitor.

Reading the confidence indicators

Each data point in the maps carries a quality marker. A solid marker indicates the figure comes from a primary, well-reported national or regional source (e.g. Eurostat, EIA, Statistics Canada, or a strong JODI report). A secondary marker indicates the figure is corroborated by an official but lower-frequency or annual-only source (such as the OPEC bulletin). A faded or flagged marker indicates the underlying source data was incomplete, unassessed, or required estimation — these figures should be treated as directional rather than precise.

Key assumptions and limitations

• Crude-to-jet allocation. Where a country's jet fuel output must be derived from its broader crude and refined product flows, the model assumes a proportional, uniform blending of crude into jet fuel output. This is a standard simplification used across the energy-analytics industry, but it will understate or overstate jet fuel's share for refineries with an unusually heavy or light product slate.
• Estimated refinery yields. Some refinery yield figures are directly observed from reported data; others are estimated where a country's refinery system is small or its reporting is sparse. Estimated figures carry materially more uncertainty than observed ones, and are marked accordingly.
• Reporting lag outside the OECD. Bilateral trade statistics for many non-OECD countries lag the present by roughly six to eighteen months. The most recent periods for these countries rely on mirror statistics (the counterpart country's reported trade) and on JODI's faster-moving aggregates, which are a reasonable proxy but not a substitute for final reported figures. For example, the most recent bilateral crude imports of China are incomplete.
• Transit and re-export hubs. Countries that function primarily as transit or re-export hubs — Singapore, the Netherlands, and the UAE in particular, and for crude also Panama, Ireland and Guyana's transhipment routes — require care to avoid double-counting volumes that pass through rather than originate or terminate there. Readers should treat these countries' apparent trade volumes as gross throughput rather than pure domestic production or consumption. Partner records are customs records and can include cargo that is later re-exported.
• Consumption data quality outside major reporting blocs. For countries outside the OECD and the EU's Eurostat framework, consumption figures rely on JODI's voluntary national reporting, which varies in completeness and timeliness from country to country. Where this is the case, the relevant figures are marked with a lower-confidence indicator.

Crude oil maps: additional notes

• Two kinds of figures. The country panels show reported totals (production, refinery intake, exports, imports) from JODI, national sources, or EIA estimates, and separately a partner breakdown built from bilateral trade records. The two can differ in scope. Under each partner list, the panel shows the sum of partner records as a share of the reported total. A difference of more than 10% is labelled "sources differ in scope". Below 50% or above 150% the panel shows a warning that the partner breakdown is indicative only.
• Estimated production. A number of countries stopped reporting production to JODI. For Angola, the United Arab Emirates, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Iraq, Oman, Russia, Argentina, Gabon, Iran, Libya, Sudan and Guyana, production comes from EIA international estimates and is shaded as indicative or unassessed.
• Mirror-only flows. Some corridors are known only from the importing country's customs report, with no matching report from the exporter. They are drawn on the maps as estimates, and the "Mirror only" layer shows countries whose figures rest only on such partner reports.
• Corridors left out. A small number of corridors that are physically implausible (for example, the same cargo recorded under a transhipment point rather than its origin, or a country with no refinery appearing as a large buyer) are excluded from the partner lists. The reported totals are not changed.
• EU importers. EU importer data up to 2024 comes from Eurostat's annual figures spread evenly across the months, so monthly patterns before 2025 are flat. From 2025 the maps use Eurostat's monthly customs data. Partner lists for 2024 and 2025 are comparable. Hub countries such as the Netherlands are shown by volumes cleared into the country, not by cargo shipped to its ports, so exporter-side figures for the same corridors can be much larger.
• Known gaps. Russia's exports to China are missing from the partner data from 2022. Canada's reported exports in the JODI series are about 10–25% below the figures published by Canada's energy regulator and the U.S. import data; the partner flows are consistent with the latter two.

Responsibility

Responsibility for the content of this platform, including any errors, is ours alone. The sources listed above are not responsible for it.

Independence

Aviation Fuel Monitor is an independent project. It is not affiliated with, endorsed or sponsored by any public or private organisation, including any airline, refiner, trading desk or government body.

Use of the information

The maps and figures are provided for information only, as they are, without any warranty of accuracy or completeness. Figures are best-effort estimates intended to illustrate structural patterns in global jet fuel and crude oil supply chains; they should not be relied upon as a substitute for licensed market data or official statistics in any decision with financial or operational consequences. Nothing on this site is investment, trading or financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell anything. If you use or quote the figures, please credit Aviation Fuel Monitor (aviationfuelmonitor.com) and the original sources.

Contact

Questions, corrections or notes about the data: contact@aviationfuelmonitor.com

Data up to June 2026
Aviation Fuel Monitor · Celso Simões